大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The price of the lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,240 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][10][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 tons, and it is predicted to reach 27,000 tons next month, a 13.06% increase [8][10]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][10]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan/ton, a 1.67% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,012 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 94,750 yuan/ton, a 0.24% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 4,604 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other Factors: On December 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,590 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The smelter inventory decreased by 6.81% to 24,324 tons, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 5.51% to 41,984 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventories increased by 3.72% to 49,660 tons, higher than the historical average; the total inventory decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 tons, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, with an increase in short positions [12]. - Positive Factors: Lithium mica manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production, and the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile has decreased on a month - on - month basis [13]. - Negative Factors: The supply from the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 93,750 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and processing costs of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium spodumene increased by 5.14% to 348,500 tons, and the daily production cost increased by 1.67% to 93,461 yuan/ton [20]. - Demand - Side Data: The production, inventory, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and other products have also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.69% to 412,850 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.71% to 104,341 tons [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - Lithium Ore: The price, production, and import volume of lithium ore have changed over time. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have shown different trends [25][26]. - Lithium Carbonate: The operating rate, production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate have been analyzed. The operating rate and production of different sources of lithium carbonate (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) have changed, and the import volume from different countries has also fluctuated [31][32][38]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The capacity utilization rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide have been studied. The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [40][43]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate, have been analyzed. Different production methods and raw materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has been monitored. The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, and the overall inventory has changed. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [53][55]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - Lithium Battery: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries have been analyzed. The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the production, shipment, and export volume have changed over time [56][57]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have been studied. The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance have also shown different trends [61][62][65]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost - profit, production, import - export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have been analyzed. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, import - export volume, and inventory have also fluctuated [67][68][70]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium: The price, production cost, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have been studied. The price and production cost have changed, and the production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [72][74][75]. - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have been analyzed. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [79][80][81].