资本市场月报-20251202

Market Performance - In November 2025, major global stock indices showed a weak overall performance, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recording positive returns, while most European and Asia-Pacific indices declined[3] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 4.4%, while the MSCI Global Market decreased by 4.1%[3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng industry indices displayed a "defensive dominance" pattern, with sectors like Consumer, Energy, Financials, and Telecommunications recording positive returns, indicating a preference for traditional industries with defensive attributes in a weak risk appetite environment[7] - The Consumer sector led with a return of 4.6%, followed by Energy at 4.4% and Financials at 3.6%[6] IPO and Financing Activity - In November 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 11 new listings, raising approximately HKD 40.6 billion, primarily driven by two automotive stocks[13] - The refinancing activity included 53 companies announcing share placements, expected to raise around HKD 31.16 billion, mainly in the real estate and automotive sectors[13] Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations showed significant volatility, with a drop of 20 percentage points to 30% on November 19, followed by a rise of 32 percentage points to 71% on November 21, indicating ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy[15] - In China, the government emphasized enhancing consumer supply-demand adaptability as a key strategy, aiming for a high-quality development framework by 2030[17] Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with limited downside potential, while sectors with solid earnings support may show resilience[18] - The Hong Kong market is likely to experience narrow fluctuations, supported by positive policy expectations, with a focus on technology, high-dividend, and domestic consumption sectors[18]