广发期货《黑色》日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. Consider long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage operations for the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for the January contract [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820 [5][7]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures are expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts. - Coking coal futures are also expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose from 3117 to 3167 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3288 to 3320 yuan/ton. - Steel production costs and profits showed different changes. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 19 yuan/ton [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.7%, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.9%. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.6%, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.2%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the inventory cost of Carajás fines increased by 1.2%, and the 01 - contract basis of Carajás fines increased by 40.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 4.2%, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 1.4%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3%. - The demand indicators such as the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output also decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices rebounded, while some spot prices decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract rose by 2.9%, and the coking coal 01 contract rose by 2.4%. The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 3.04% [8]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.7%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%. - Some coal mines stopped production, with a total approved capacity of 540 million tons, and are expected to resume production after short - term rectification [8]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the demand for coking coal and coke weakened to some extent [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, with coking plants and steel mills accumulating inventory and ports reducing inventory. - The overall coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal washing plants, ports, and coking enterprises reducing inventory, and coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills accumulating inventory [8].