黄金 -摩根大通贵金属部门观点-Gold_ Perspectives from the J.P. Morgan precious metals desk

Investment Rating - The report maintains a medium-term bullish outlook on gold, with a neutral short-term stance due to lower liquidity as the year ends [1][3]. Core Insights - The consensus view on long gold positions is at an all-time high, with significant participation from hedge funds and central banks [1][3]. - The structural investment case for gold is supported by persistent fiscal deficits, geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing central bank demand, with projections for gold prices to exceed $5,000/oz by Q4 2026 [1][4]. - The report highlights a strong performance of gold, with a year-to-date increase of 59%, significantly outperforming the ASX200, which rose by 6% [3]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Drivers - Key drivers for gold prices include geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization, widening government deficits, and the Federal Reserve's shift towards rate cuts [3]. - Physical demand for gold remains robust, particularly in Asian markets, with demand peaking in October despite high prices [3]. Market Participation - The breadth of market participants in gold has been unprecedented, with central banks, asset managers, hedge funds, corporates, and retail investors all actively involved [3][4]. - A notable trend is large corporate treasuries allocating portions of their cash holdings to gold, indicating its growing appeal as a strategic asset [3]. Technical Analysis - The $3,990-$4,000 range is identified as a key short-term support level, with a sustained break above $4,250 expected to trigger further price increases [4]. - The next area of consolidation for gold prices is projected to be around $4,400-$4,500 [4]. Equity Recommendations - Among large-cap equities, the report recommends Northern Star Resources Ltd. (NST) and Newmont Corp. (NEM) as overweight (OW) picks, while Evolution Mining Ltd. (EVN) is rated neutral (N) [4]. - For mid-cap equities, Ramelius Resources (RMS), Capricorn Metals (CMM), and Genesis Minerals (GMD) are highlighted as overweight (OW) recommendations [4].