瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC inventory is accumulating slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased and losses have deepened, while the cost of the ethylene process has decreased and profits have slightly recovered. The PVC production capacity utilization rate is still on an upward trend, and the high - operation state is expected to continue in December. With the drop in temperature, the downstream demand for PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Although overseas demand exists due to the termination of India's BIS and anti - dumping policies for imported PVC, it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. Recently, the PVC market has rebounded due to cost - side benefits and short - covering, but the rebound space is limited under the background of high production and weak demand. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure around 4600 yuan/ton for the V2601 daily K - line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 4575 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the trading volume is 548,981 lots, down 367,080 lots; the open interest is 1,024,038 lots, down 47,480 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,064,466 lots, down 1,299 lots; the short position is 1,186,643 lots, down 23,163 lots; the net long position is - 122,177 lots, up 21,864 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the spot price of ethylene - based PVC is 4560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4516.92 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the spot price of ethylene - based PVC is 4625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4518.75 yuan/ton, down 4.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 65 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in North China, it is 2740 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2559 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 438 US dollars/ton, down 38 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 498 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 173 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 178 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.22%, up 1.39%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 83.61%, up 2.3%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.38%, down 0.74%. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.79 tons, up 0.12 tons, with 48.13 tons in East China, up 0.08 tons, and 4.66 tons in South China, up 0.04 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.43, down 0.35. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 49,061.39 million square meters, up 3,662.39 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 652,939.03 million square meters, up 4,359.03 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 3898.297 billion yuan, up 311.91 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.89%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.3%, down 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, up 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.36%, up 0.39% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, China's PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, up 1.39% month - on - month. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.42% to 49.61%, with the pipe operating rate down 1.4% to 38.8% and the profile operating rate up 0.21% to 36.09%. As of November 27th, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% to 1042,800 tons. The average cost of the calcium carbide process nationwide increased to 5131 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 881 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5187 yuan/ton, and the profit increased to - 465 yuan/ton [2].