瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the loose spot supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and maintained a contraction trend. [2] - This week, some plants in East and North China will restart, and the newly followed - up maintenance capacity is scarce. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, caustic soda is generally expected to be in a situation of high supply. [2] - There is no news of production cuts from alumina enterprises, and the procurement demand is low under the background of low profits; non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. Inventory is expected to remain high, supply will continue to be loose, spot prices will be under pressure, and it is more likely that the spot will decline to close the basis in the future. [2] - SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the high basis and low corresponding profit level may limit the decline space, with the daily range expected to be around 2180 - 2240 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 151,780 lots, an increase of 3,333 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 19,581 lots, a decrease of 1,030 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 244,169 lots, a decrease of 30,998 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2413 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2281 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 654 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. [2] - From November 22nd to 28th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.60% month - on - month to 86.06%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 91.29%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.02% month - on - month to 65.53%. [2] - As of November 27th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons nationwide was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. [2]