瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - EB261 rebounded after a decline, closing at 6,564 yuan/ton. Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased month-on-month. Downstream operating rates varied, with a slight decline in the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS. Factory and port inventories changed differently, and the de-stocking pace slowed down. Losses in non-integrated processes decreased, while profits in integrated processes deepened. With the recent launch of a 200,000-ton new device in Dongming and the restart of a 600,000-ton device at Lianyungang Petrochemical this week, domestic styrene supply is expected to recover. The impact of styrene maintenance in December will gradually weaken, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. In the short term, the load on the downstream demand side will be slightly adjusted, with little overall change. The tight balance between supply and demand of styrene may gradually turn into a loose balance, weakening price support. In terms of cost, geopolitical uncertainties in Russia-Ukraine and US-Venezuela still exist, and the market expects an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, with international oil prices fluctuating strongly recently. In the short term, EB2601 is expected to fluctuate, with daily K-line support around 6,400 and resistance around 6,620 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6,564 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume was 396,054 lots, up 125,956 lots; the long positions of the top 20 holders were 320,590 lots, up 4,091 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 holders were -40,233 lots, up 6,230 lots; the short positions of the top 20 holders were 360,823 lots, down 2,139 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,656 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 810 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the CFR China intermediate price was 820 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the mainstream price in the Northeast region was 6,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the South China region was 6,785 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China region was 6,505 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the mainstream price in the East China region was 6,600 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 643 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; the CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 658 US dollars/ton, down 3.33 US dollars; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 273 cents/gallon, unchanged; the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 714 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,320 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 5,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene production from November 21st to 27th was 334,700 tons, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period; the factory capacity utilization rate was 67.29%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.66%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS from November 21st to 28th was 268,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%. As of November 27th, the styrene factory inventory was 190,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.24%. As of December 1st, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 160,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.19%; the inventory at South China ports was 9,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 39.1% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, down 1.52 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 71.2%, down 1.2 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 57.6%, up 1.7 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 37%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 75.99%, up 1.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the overall production of Chinese styrene factories was 334,700 tons, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period; the factory capacity utilization rate was 67.29%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.66%. From November 21st to 28th, the consumption of styrene downstream EPS, PS, and ABS was 268,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%. As of November 27th, the styrene factory inventory was 190,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.24%. As of December 1st, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 160,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.19%; the inventory at South China ports was 9,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 39.1%. As of November 26th, the non-integrated profit of styrene was -159 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 208.76 yuan/ton [2].