瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report At the beginning of the month, the reduction in supply from large - scale farms briefly alleviates the supply pressure. However, to meet the annual sales plan, large - scale farms are expected to resume normal sales, and the supply of large pigs from small - scale farmers will increase, so the supply side still faces pressure. On the demand side, winter is the peak season for pork consumption, with some regional curing and sausage - making activities starting sporadically, and overall demand has improved, leading to an expected increase in the slaughterhouse operation rate. Generally, supply has slightly decreased at the beginning of the month while demand continues to rise. Recently, the spot price of live pigs has adjusted slightly, but the relatively high supply situation is difficult to change in the short term. The supply and demand are in a game phase, and prices will generally face pressure. The main live pig futures contract fluctuates, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the sales rhythm of farmers and curing activities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main live pig futures contract is 11,455 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the position of the main contract is 98,797 lots, down 2,943 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 42,433 lots, down 576 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping, it is 11,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu, it is 12,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The main live pig basis is - 55 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 436.8 million heads, an increase of 12.33 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,331.47 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 912.54, down 0.59. The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, a decrease of 1.717 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,449 yuan/head, down 4 yuan. The breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 248.82 yuan/head, down 14.19 yuan; the breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising is - 147.99 yuan/head, down 12.09 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.9 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 38.34 million heads, an increase of 2.5 million heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News According to Mysteel data, on December 2, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 153,921 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.46% [2].