瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent raw materials in Yunnan's rubber - producing areas remain stable, with farmers in the area starting to sell rubber blocks, and the supply is relatively abundant; in Hainan's producing areas, continuous rainfall and decreasing temperature have increased disruptions to rubber - tapping operations, reducing the output of fresh glue, but due to the decline in overseas factory offers, local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a slight decrease in raw material prices [2]. - Currently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port is still accumulating significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories are flexible in production scheduling and cautious in inventory preparation, resulting in a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port [2]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance last week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance resumed production, leading to a restorative increase in capacity utilization. This week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to normal, it will drive a restorative increase in overall capacity utilization, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,100 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 62,962 lots, down 3,978 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 42,278 lots, down 2,933 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,480 lots, up 337 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 8,307 lots, up 665 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 41,400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber in the exchange are 52,113 tons, up 1,411 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,949 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 719 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.66%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.66%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, with an increase rate of 2.71%. The inventory in the bonded area was 72,400 tons, an increase rate of 0.69%; the inventory in general trade was 409,200 tons, an increase rate of 3.07% [2]. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - In the first week of the future (November 30 - December 6, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber - tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, which also had less impact on rubber - tapping [2].