贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, low inventory and potential short - term demand release increase the upward price elasticity. Platinum and palladium prices mainly follow gold and silver [3]. - The arrival of domestic electrolytic copper is scarce, and downstream restocking at low prices has led to a decline in inventory, keeping the futures market strong. However, new downstream orders are growing weakly, and the market will maintain a high - level shock consolidation after the breakthrough [15]. - The Shanghai Aluminum futures are oscillating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and the impetus from copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and has strong downside support [34][35]. - Macro - sentiment has improved, and the probability of interest - rate cuts is considered high. On the fundamental side, smelters are competing fiercely for ore, leading to a significant decline in TC. Supply is shrinking, and demand is entering the off - season. The market is in a stalemate and will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - Nickel iron prices have been declining recently, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is expected to be limited [80]. - In the short - term, the supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so Shanghai Tin will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - In the context of Ningde's resumption of production, the supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is a short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may experience a phased correction [109]. - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward price space is limited. The short - term trading of the polysilicon market focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest, and price fluctuations are expected to increase [121]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Forecast: London Silver's target has been raised to 65 after breaking through 55, with the first resistance at 60. London Gold has resistance at 4250 and strong resistance at 4400, with support at 4000 [3]. - Price Index: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][8][9]. - Inventory: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are shown [14]. Copper - Market Situation: The futures market is strong due to low inventory, but new downstream orders are growing weakly. The market will maintain a high - level shock [15]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and refined - scrap price differences are provided [15][22][26][29]. - Inventory: SHFE and LME copper inventories are presented [30][31]. Aluminum - Market Situation: Shanghai Aluminum is oscillating strongly due to macro - factors and the impetus from other metals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [34]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and import profits and losses are provided [36][43][50][56]. - Inventory: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are presented [58]. Zinc - Market Situation: Macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental side is in a stalemate. The market will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and LME zinc's 0 - 3m and 3 - 15m spreads are provided [66][71]. - Inventory: SHFE and LME zinc inventories are presented [74][76]. Nickel - Market Situation: Nickel iron prices are declining, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is limited [80]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis are provided [81]. - Related Data: Nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented [87][88][90]. Tin - Market Situation: The supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so it will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and processing fees are provided [97][102][107]. - Inventory: SHFE and LME tin inventories are presented [104]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: The supply - demand game will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may correct [109]. - Price Data: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and price differences between different grades are provided [110][113]. - Inventory: Exchange and social inventories are presented [119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Situation: Industrial silicon is in a weak supply - demand situation, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. The polysilicon market's short - term trading focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest [121]. - Price Data: Industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices are provided [121][131]. - Related Data: Production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [145][152][154].