Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, the cost of raw materials supports the prices of finished steel products, and profits are gradually improving. The steel market may anticipate future trends, leading to a slightly upward - trending price movement. The expected price range for rebar is between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil, it is between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption. However, a decline in steel enterprise profitability may trigger negative feedback [3]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, and its valuation has been restored. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction currently, and the accumulation rate of port inventory has slowed down [22]. - For coking coal, the supply change is limited, but due to the pressure on terminal steel mill profits and the continuous reduction of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance has shifted to a slight surplus. Short - term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, the profit of coking enterprises has been restored, and subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to inventory accumulation [35]. - Ferroalloys face high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost may decrease due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, the supply reduction trend limits the downward price space. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the strength of finished steel prices may drive a short - term rebound, ferroalloys are likely to return to their weak fundamentals after the rebound [51]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Without a trend - based production reduction, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The acceleration of glass cold - repair has weakened the rigid demand for soda ash. Although exports remain high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [67]. - In December, there are expectations of glass production line cold - repair, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract will follow the current market situation. Recently, due to the acceleration of cold - repair and the expected decline in daily melting volume, the short - term price of glass has strengthened, but the sustainability is uncertain. High inventory levels during the off - season pose pressure on the spot market [92]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures Price: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3208 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3325 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3322 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3338 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot Price: On December 2, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3331 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton [9][11]. - Price Difference: The 01 contract spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 192 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference in Shanghai was 10 yuan/ton [16]. Iron Ore - Futures Price: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 800.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 751.5 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot Price: On December 2, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajas powder was 890 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special powder was 690 yuan/ton [23]. - Fundamentals: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average molten iron production was 234.68 tons, 45 - port cargo clearance volume was 330.58 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3323.2 tons [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures Spread: On December 2, 2025, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coke was 201 yuan/ton [39]. - Spot Price: On December 2, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1580 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [42]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 2 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5200 yuan/ton [52]. - Silicon Manganese: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 158 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5530 yuan/ton [53]. Soda Ash - Futures Price: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1244 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1307 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1183 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot Price: On December 2, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [68]. Glass - Futures Price: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1145 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1195 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1034 yuan/ton [93]. - Spot Market: As of November 28, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 162%, and in Hubei, it was 160% [94].
黑色产业链日报-20251202
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-12-02 13:03