芳烃橡胶早报-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, maintain high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high, far - month production is limited, PX pattern is good, focus on buying low for positive spread and expanding processing fees opportunities [2] - For MEG, supply reduction and high polyester operation may slow down inventory accumulation, coal - made profit is low, valuation compression space is limited, focus on short - term selling put options; long - term pattern is weak due to new device launch and warehouse receipt pressure [4] - For polyester staple fiber, short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export, but long - term pattern may weaken as downstream enters off - season and new devices are approaching, current processing fee is neutral, focus on warehouse receipt situation [4] - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping, strategy is to wait and see [4] PTA - PTA spot average daily trading basis for 2601 is - 34, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarts [2] - Near - end TA device restarts, operation rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, spot processing fee weakens; PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, isomerization benefit is stable, US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread shrinks [2] MEG - MEG spot basis for 01 is around - 2, Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts [4] - Near - end domestic coal - chemical devices restart, operation rate rises, overseas devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of the week with low arrival forecast, basis weakens, coal - made profit improves slightly [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - Spot price is around 6347, market basis for 01 is around - 100, no device maintenance information [4] - Near - end device operation is stable, operation rate is 97.5%, sales improve slightly, inventory decreases. Downstream yarn operation rate is stable, raw material inventory decreases and finished product inventory increases, profit is maintained [4] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - There are daily and weekly changes in various prices such as spot prices of Thai standard and mixed rubber, Shanghai full - latex, etc. [4] - There are also changes in spreads and processing profits, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 41,400 [4] Styrene - There are daily changes in prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and its downstream products such as PS, ABS [7] - There are also changes in Asian spreads and domestic profits of styrene, EPS, PS, ABS [7]