建信期货钢材日评-20251203

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: December 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On December 2, most rebar spot markets and a few hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price increases. Rebar prices in Shanghai, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Changsha, Nanning, and Chengdu rose by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, while those in Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Wuxi, Hefei, Wuhan, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Chongqing, Kunming, Guiyang, and Lanzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Fuzhou, Jinan, Nanchang, and Nanning went up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J value slightly falling back and the K and D values continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract expanded for three consecutive trading days, and that of the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract for two consecutive trading days [8]. 1.2 Future Outlook - News: With high-level dialogues between China and the US, and the US and Japan, geopolitical risks have eased, investors' risk appetite has significantly recovered, and the prices of risk assets have been restored. The prices of steel and ore, which were previously resilient, have strengthened. The main January contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore reached new highs since September 29, October 31, and October 31 respectively. Coke and coking coal futures also rebounded significantly in the past two days [9]. - Fundamentals: In the week of November 28, the demand for the five major steel products declined slightly compared to the previous week but remained at the level of late October. Although production has rebounded slightly in the past two weeks, the inventory continued to decline rapidly, further alleviating supply pressure [9]. - Raw Materials: The first round of spot price cuts for coke was implemented. The prices of major primary coking coal in the spot market decreased by 50 - 140 yuan/ton in the past week. After the spot prices of coal and coke followed the futures prices down, the risk release of coal and coke futures brought a certain degree of confidence recovery. The concern about increased supply in the iron ore market eased. With coking coal and coke giving profits to steel mills, the price support for iron ore was relatively strong, driving up the cost of steel [9]. - Overall: The steel futures market is expected to consolidate with an upward bias due to the warming macro - environment and favorable fundamental factors. Attention should be paid to the pace of the warming macro - environment and the resonance differences between various commodity market sectors and the stock market [9]. 2. Industry News - Environmental Protection Inspection: The third round and fifth batch of the central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Tianjin had serious problems in volatile organic compound treatment and vehicle inspections, with sub - standard air quality and many enterprises found to be illegally discharging pollutants. Tangshan, Hebei, was criticized for illegally launching steel projects and increasing production capacity, with obvious shortcomings in air pollution prevention and control [10]. - Steel Consumption and Production: Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's apparent steel consumption has declined for four consecutive years, and steel production has generally shown a downward trend. The domestic apparent consumption decreased from a peak of 1.04 billion tons in 2020 to 890 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 150 million tons, with an average annual decline of 3.8%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the domestic apparent consumption was 649 million tons, a decrease of 5.7%, with the decline further intensifying [10]. - Iron Ore Development: On November 28, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association held a symposium on domestic iron ore resource development. Relevant officials from national ministries and commissions introduced the work at the ministry level, interpreted the newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" implemented on July 1, 2025, and briefly answered relevant questions. They stated that China has a high dependence on imported iron ore and large potential for increasing iron ore reserves and production, and efforts should be made to increase the conversion from exploration to mining to improve the domestic production capacity of iron ore [10]. - Corporate Repurchase: Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. announced a share repurchase plan from May 22, 2025, to May 21, 2026, with an expected repurchase of 100 - 200 million yuan worth of shares for reducing the registered capital. In November 2025, the company repurchased 7.0732 million shares, accounting for 0.016% of the total share capital, and paid 18.000483 million yuan. As of November 30, the cumulative repurchase was 29.3387 million shares, accounting for 0.065% of the total share capital, with a cumulative payment of 70.000827 million yuan and a repurchase price ranging from 1.79 - 2.72 yuan/share [11]. - Mining Project: Pangang Group Mining Co., Ltd. recently launched the project of green and intelligent mining of vanadium - titanium magnetite in Zhulan Iron Mine, aiming to start the project officially by the end of June 2027. The project plans a total investment of about 5 billion yuan. After completion, the Zhulan Iron Mine will shift from open - pit to underground mining, ensuring effective capacity connection and extending the mine's service life by more than 40 years. The underground mining scale for deep resources is 15 - 20 million tons/year, using the stage open - stoping and full - tailings backfill mining method to minimize solid waste generation [11]. - Stock Repurchase: On December 1, Yongtai Energy announced a plan to repurchase a portion of its issued A - share common stocks using its own funds and self - raised funds for cancellation to reduce the company's registered capital. The proposed repurchase amount is not less than 300 million yuan and not more than 500 million yuan, with a repurchase price not exceeding 2.50 yuan/share. The repurchase period is within 12 months after the shareholders' meeting's approval, and it will be implemented through centralized bidding transactions. The company also disclosed that its directors, supervisors, senior management, controlling shareholders, actual controllers, and shareholders with more than 5% of the shares have no plans to reduce their holdings in the next six months [11]. - Coal Resources: As of now, Anhui Province holds coal resource reserves of over 7.6 billion tons in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions, with an approved (designed) annual coal production capacity of over 70 million tons, ensuring the province's energy security while achieving long - term corporate development [11]. - Coal Contracts: The 2026 coal - steel - coke long - term contract negotiation meeting of the China Coking Coal Brand Cluster was successfully concluded. Shanxi Coking Coal signed contracts with 28 customer units, including 25 long - term agreement customers, 2 key customers, and 1 internal customer, achieving the goals of the meeting. The signing and performance work of Shanxi's 2026 coal long - term contracts has officially started. All coal long - term contracts for power supply and those in metallurgy, chemical, building materials and other industries will be uniformly operated online, marking a new stage in the standardized management of coal trading in Shanxi. The power coal supply contracts use the national unified contract model text and are signed following a standardized process. The signing process for non - power industries such as metallurgy, chemical, and building materials will be appropriately simplified. All contract signing work must be completed by December 13, 2025 [11][12]. - Coal Transportation: As of now, the China Railway Urumqi Bureau Group Co., Ltd. has cumulatively completed 85.1801 million tons of coal transportation from Xinjiang this year, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From December 1, 2025, Russia increased railway freight rates by 10%, including coal transportation on all routes [12]. - Coal Production and Sales: In November 2025, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) produced 68 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 1.19% and a month - on - month increase of 20.57%. Coal sales were 62.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% and a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [12]. - Coal Price: On December 1, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the reference prices for Indonesian thermal coal for the first half of December 2025, with most prices higher than those in the second half of November. The reference price for HBA (high - grade 6322 kcal) thermal coal was 98.26 US dollars/ton, HBA I (high - grade 5300 kcal) was 67.99 US dollars/ton, HBA II (high - grade 4100 kcal) was 44.37 US dollars/ton, and HBA III (high - grade 3400 kcal) was 34.15 US dollars/ton [12]. - Trade Investigations: On December 1, the US Department of Commerce announced a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on non - oriented electrical steel imported from China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, and Taiwan (China), and a second counter -vailing sunset review investigation on non - oriented electrical steel imported from China and Taiwan (China). The US International Trade Commission (USITC) also launched a second anti - dumping and counter -vailing sunset review industrial injury investigation. Interested parties should register for应诉 with the US Department of Commerce within 10 days of the announcement, submit responses to the USITC by December 31, 2025, and submit comments on the sufficiency of the responses to the USITC by February 6, 2026 at the latest. On the same day, the US Department of Commerce announced a first anti - dumping sunset review investigation on forged steel fittings imported from India and South Korea, and a first counter -vailing sunset review investigation on forged steel fittings imported from India. The US ITC launched a first anti - dumping and counter -vailing sunset review industrial injury investigation. Interested parties should register for应诉 with the US Department of Commerce within 10 days of the announcement, submit responses to the USITC by December 31, 2025, and submit comments on the sufficiency of the responses to the USITC by February 10, 2026 at the latest [12][13] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the social inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventories of the five major steel products, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average molten iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar/hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts [15][16][23]