大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: On December 2, 2025, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, with the spot basis remaining stable. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The PTA supply - demand pattern didn't change significantly. It's expected that the futures will fluctuate with the cost side, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - MEG: On December 2, 2025, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward. The market negotiation was average. It's expected that there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. The market is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term, with the spot basis weakening. Attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures closed higher on December 2, 2025. The spot market negotiation improved, and the basis was stable. Some polyester factories replenished stocks. The supply - demand pattern was stable. The futures followed the cost side to fluctuate [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on December 2, 2025. The market negotiation was average. There will be a concentrated arrival of foreign goods in early December, and the inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - PTA: A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China has been under maintenance since November 29, expected to last for 4 weeks [9]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to stop for maintenance next week, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, output, import, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Price and Spread Data: It includes the price changes of raw materials such as naphtha and PX, the price and basis changes of PTA and MEG, and the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products from December 1 to December 2, 2025 [12]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - PTA: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days on December 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [5]. - MEG: The total inventory in East China was 707,000 tons on December 2, 2025, an increase of 72,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 3.6 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - Upstream: It includes the historical data of the operating rates of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol from 2021 to 2025 [54][56]. - Downstream: It includes the historical data of the capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2021 to 2025 [58]. 3.7 Profit Analysis - PTA: The PTA processing fee was 150.7 yuan/ton on December 2, 2025, a decrease of 288.78 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. - MEG: The profits of MEG production from different raw materials such as naphtha, ethylene, and methanol all decreased on December 2, 2025 [12]. - Polyester Products: The profits of polyester fiber short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY showed different degrees of change on December 2, 2025 [12].