棉花早报-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for cotton futures is a volatile upward trend. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, with cost support, the peak of inventory has passed, and there are expectations for a consumption recovery. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, trading will shift to the 05 contract. It is advisable to take short - term long positions on price dips [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC 11 - month report, the 2025/2026 cotton production is 25.4 million tons and consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA 11 - month report shows production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/2026 forecast in November includes production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - Expected factors: The reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the near - completion of domestic new cotton picking, and the end - of - year restocking by downstream enterprises. The short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak of inventory passed, there are expectations for a consumption recovery [6]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,980 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1225 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/2026 November report is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [7]. - Positive factors: The purchase price of seed cotton has increased slightly, and commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [8]. - Negative factors: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to enter the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In 2025/2026, the total global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory among different countries [15][16]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In 2025/2026, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [18]. - China Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In 2025/2026, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content