Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of white sugar is approaching delivery, and trading is advised to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, with the price mainly showing a low - level sideways consolidation [5][9]. - The overall situation of the white sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors include increased global white sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new year, low international sugar prices leading to increased import pressure [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with different estimates. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5560 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 244 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a neutral indicator [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is negative [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola [7]. - Negative factors: Increased global white sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new year, international sugar prices dropping to around 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, increasing import pressure [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons, and Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.4 million tons [9][34]. - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, there are changes in sugarcane planting area, yield, import, consumption, etc. The expected sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.7 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons [36]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [41]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.
大越期货白糖早报-20251203
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-03 02:25