大越期货贵金属早报-20251203

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's inauguration has brought extreme global turmoil, shifting inflation expectations to recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, along with liquidity concerns, still provide upward momentum for gold prices, but the momentum is limited [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Due to concerns about tariffs, silver prices are more likely to see an expanded increase. However, the actual shortage may be limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [12]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Due to strong demand for Japanese bond auctions and the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market, liquidity concerns eased, and gold prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.3. The basis was - 5.21, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 90,873 kilograms [4]. - Silver: With the easing of liquidity concerns and the cooling of the supply - shortage game, silver prices fluctuated significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce. The basis was + 2, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 20,930 kilograms to 594,632 kilograms [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on the US November ADP employment figures, PMI data from China, the US, and the EU, and speeches by the ECB president and officials. Trump's hint at the Fed chairmanship and other factors have stabilized risk appetite, causing gold prices to fall slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 4.7 yuan per gram, showing cautious sentiment in the domestic market [4]. - Silver: The spot - futures structure of Shanghai silver is gradually being repaired, and the supply - shortage game has cooled. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 420 yuan per gram, indicating strong domestic sentiment. Although there is still upward momentum for silver prices, investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:00: Fed Chair Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone November CPI preliminary value and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory supervision - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position has decreased [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.07% to 175,022, the short position decreased by 1.70% to 60,292, and the net long position increased by 0.81% to 114,730 [30]. - Silver: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.24% to 394,144, the short position decreased by 3.60% to 303,086, and the net long position decreased by 6.31% to 91,058 [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position has been increasing in a fluctuating manner [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [37]. - Gold Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly, while COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level [38][39]. - Silver Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [41].