大越期货油脂早报-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8472, with a basis of 220, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8670, with a basis of 50, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - Expectation: Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10115, with a basis of 370, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to be Bullish: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - Likely to be Bearish: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].