大越期货PVC期货早报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. - The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4551 - 4599 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 355,560 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 133,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 880.71 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 464.69 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 9.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,925.95 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average [7]. 3.2.3 Basis - On December 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Factory inventory was 322,640 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.28%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 249,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 73,250 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. Social inventory was 527,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.35 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [7]. 3.2.5 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [7]. 3.2.6 Main Position - The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.2.7 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend of the PVC basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. 3.4.2 Volume and Position - The report shows the trading volume, price trend, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract [21]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - The report analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, and production - related data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. 3.5.2 Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production by calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [42][45]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [56]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Related - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads in the ethylene method [58]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [61].