大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted to reach 98,210 physical tons next month, a 3.00% increase [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 95,970 yuan/ton, a 2.68% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 94,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a loss of 4,016 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The fundamentals are neutral; on December 2nd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,660 tons, a 3.72% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a 2.07% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 92,980 - 96,740 yuan/ton. The bullish factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The bearish factor is the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [9][11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week's production decreased slightly, but November's production and next - month's predicted production increased. The cost of spodumene concentrate increased, while the cost of lepidolite remained unchanged. The salt lake side has cost advantages [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased last week [8]. - Cost: Most production methods are in a loss - making state, except for the salt lake side [9]. - Market Indicators: Fundamentals are neutral, basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, disk is bullish, and main positions are bearish [9]. - Expectation: The price will fluctuate within a certain range, affected by both bullish and bearish factors [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Quotes Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium compounds, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have different degrees of rise and fall. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.50%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.05% [15]. - Supply - Related Data - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore has changed, and the production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore in different periods are presented. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in each month [24][25][28]. - Lithium Carbonate: The production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different periods are provided, and the supply - demand balance also varies from month to month. The production and import of lithium carbonate in November 2025 increased compared with the previous period [30][31][37]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide are shown, and the supply - demand balance is also analyzed monthly [39][40][43]. - Cost - Profit Data: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are presented. Different production methods and materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. - Inventory Data: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, shows different trends of increase and decrease [53][55]. - Demand - Related Data - Lithium Batteries: The price, production, sales, and export of lithium batteries are presented, as well as the inventory and winning bids of energy - storage batteries [56][57][59]. - Ternary Precursors: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [61][62][65]. - Ternary Materials: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials are provided [67][68][71]. - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [73][74][77]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are shown, as well as the retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index [81][82][86].