大越期货沥青期货早报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average and remains sluggish due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term as crude oil prices decline. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2890 - 2942 in the short term. The overall fundamental outlook is bearish [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high price of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158,000 tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.4823%, a 3.056 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The national sample enterprise shipments are 262,100 tons, a 6.74% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production is 492,000 tons, an 11.56% month - on - month increase. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 866,000 tons, a 9.60% month - on - month decrease. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - Demand: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a 0.02 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a 5.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a 0.20 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a 2.60% month - on - month increase. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a 1.49% month - on - month increase. Asphalt processing losses are increasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the short - term support is expected to weaken [7]. - Basis: On December 2, the spot price in Shandong is 2960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is 39 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. This is a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a 3.74% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory is 588,000 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month increase. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570,000 tons, a 28.75% month - on - month decrease. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, which is a neutral signal [7]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish signal [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - Spread analysis: - Main contract spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional market price trends: It shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - Production volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil prices and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - Capacity utilization rate: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - Estimated maintenance loss volume: It shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volumes from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It presents the historical trends of asphalt social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - Import - export situation: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price spreads from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][79]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [87][88][89]. - Downstream machinery demand: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][93][94]. - Asphalt capacity utilization rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use: It presents the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - Downstream capacity utilization situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].