《农产品》日报-20251203

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysian palm oil may end its rebound and weaken due to potential inventory growth at the end of November. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to strengthen to 8800 yuan in the short - term. The long - term demand for soy oil depends on the US EPA's decision on 2026 biofuel blending obligations, and currently, the domestic demand for soy oil is weak, but the basis is expected to remain stable due to oil mills' price - holding psychology [1]. Hogs - The pig market supply and demand are basically balanced. Pig prices are expected to be weak and volatile in December. The strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be maintained, and the single - side market is expected to bottom out [4]. Meal Products - The US soybean is supported by the drought risk in the Argentine production area and the interest - rate cut expectation, but is affected by tariffs and Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to be in a sideways trend with support for the basis due to expected supply decline [8]. Corn - The short - term corn market is firm due to tight supply, but price increases are limited because of unsold pressure. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and procurement changes [10]. Sugar - The global raw sugar remains weak. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, and the market may rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures are stabilizing. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range - bound, with strong support at the bottom and continued hedging pressure [16]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs has been relieved, but the terminal demand is weak. Egg futures prices are expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of Dalian palm oil futures rose, with the P2601 contract up 0.79%. The price of soy oil futures (Y2601) was flat, and the price of rapeseed oil futures (Ol601) fell 0.26% [1]. - Market Analysis: For palm oil, the production decline in Malaysia and the rise in US soy oil support the price in the short - term, but the expected inventory increase is a potential negative factor. For soy oil, the US biofuel policy affects long - term demand, and currently, domestic demand is weak [1]. Hogs - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of the live hog 2605 contract rose 0.21%, and the 2601 contract fell 0.35%. The slaughter volume increased 0.39%, and the breeding profit decreased [4]. - Market Analysis: The market supply and demand are balanced, with an expected increase in December supply. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the basis of the main contract decreased [4]. Meal Products - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of soy meal futures (M2601) rose 0.20%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2601) was flat. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed increased [8]. - Market Analysis: The US soybean is affected by multiple factors. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the basis is supported by expected supply decline [8]. Corn - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of the corn 2601 contract rose 0.31%, and the price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.16%. The import cost increased, and the import profit decreased [10]. - Market Analysis: The supply in the northeast and north China is tight, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is different. The short - term price is firm, but the increase is limited [10]. Sugar - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.43%, and the ICE raw sugar rose 1.56%. The domestic sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [14]. - Market Analysis: The global raw sugar is weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, with a possible rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of the cotton 2605 contract rose 0.22%, and the ICE US cotton fell 0.05%. The domestic cotton spot price rose, and the commercial inventory increased [16]. - Market Analysis: The ICE cotton is stabilizing, and the domestic cotton is affected by hedging pressure and demand. The price is expected to be range - bound [16]. Eggs - Price Changes: On December 2, the price of the egg 01 contract fell slightly, and the 02 contract rose 0.89%. The egg price in the production area fell 0.20%, and the breeding profit decreased [18]. - Market Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The egg futures price is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18].