《有色》日报-20251203
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-03 03:16
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong, maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold previous long positions, and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes, the futures price fluctuates and declines, and the contango arbitrage window closes. In December, the market remains in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - In December, the supply exceeds demand, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. The price is under pressure. For futures, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, consider taking profits and closing positions [6]. Nickel - The nickel price has limited upward driving force. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [7]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a weak oscillation, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [9]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina suppresses the price, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference operating range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production - cut scale and inventory inflection point [15]. Aluminum - It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory depletion [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and demand, the short - term price trend of casting aluminum alloy is strong, with the main contract reference operating range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap - aluminum supply and inventory depletion [17]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the downward price space is limited in the short term, but the upside elasticity is also limited. The main reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [19]. Copper - The copper price runs at a high level. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the price bottom. The main support range is 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price is 304700 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; LME 0 - 3 premium is 150.00 dollars/ton, up 21.95% [2]. - Inter - month Spreads: For example, the spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 820 yuan/ton, down 22.39% [2]. - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [2]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon is 9550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 41.98% [5]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 250.00% [5]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month - on - month comparison, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of the front - month to the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 119900 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 2.08% [7]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 230 yuan/ton, down [7]. - Fundamental Data: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72%, and the net export volume decreased by 21.54% [9]. Alumina - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21710 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 2760 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [14][16]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 is - 40.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [14][16]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price and Basis: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in Southwest China is 21600 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 1.77% [17]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22740 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the import profit and loss is - 5470 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton [19]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and in October, imports decreased by 16.94% [19]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 88660 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.99% [20]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 50 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61% [20].