广发期货日评-20251203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Near the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the U.S. dollar index has recently peaked and declined, and further interest rate cuts are still likely. A-share major indices have also rebounded, but the trading volume does not support a breakthrough [3]. - The short - term bond market still lacks a driving factor to break out of the shock and may remain in a narrow - range shock [3]. - Gold prices are in a shock around $4200, and there is still resistance at the previous high. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60 [3]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a short - term shock, while steel mills are reducing production, and iron ore shipments are rising [3]. - The fundamentals of aluminum are showing positive feedback, and the macro and micro factors are resonating to drive the price up [3]. - For new energy products, the market for polysilicon futures has declined, and the lithium carbonate market may see increased divergence [3]. - In the chemical industry, the medium - term supply - demand outlook for PX is improving, and the short - term support is strong [3]. - In the agricultural products market, the northern hemisphere sugar cane crushing season is progressing well, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Directories Financial - Equity Index Futures: Short - term light - position selling of December put options is recommended. When the volatility is low, build long - spread positions in stages during pullbacks to layout for the spring market [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: In the short term, reduce left - hand operations and wait and see. Pay attention to the implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - Precious Metals: Be cautious about chasing long positions in gold unilaterally. Sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. For silver, lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Adopt a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy for platinum and palladium [3]. Black - Steel: Consider a long - steel and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy and narrow the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [3]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to be strong in a shock, with a reference range of 750 - 820 [3]. - Coking Coal: It is expected to be in a shock, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150. Consider a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. - Coke: It is expected to be in a shock, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. Consider a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper: Take profits at high levels in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 86000 - 87000 [3]. - Aluminum and Its Alloys: For aluminum, go long at low levels in the short term, with a reference range of 21500 - 22200. For other aluminum - related products, different price ranges are provided [3]. - Other Non - ferrous Metals: Hold previous long positions in tin and adopt a low - buying strategy during pullbacks. Other non - ferrous metals also have their corresponding price ranges and operation suggestions [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon: Consider closing out out - of - the - money put options for profit [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock [3]. Chemical - PX: Treat it as a short - term high - level shock [3]. - PTA and Related Products: PTA is expected to be in a short - term high - level shock. For related products, different operation suggestions such as narrowing processing fees are provided [3]. - Other Chemical Products: Different products have different operation suggestions, such as short - selling at high levels for benzene, and waiting for short - selling opportunities after rebounds for PVC and soda ash [3]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: The short - term outlook for palm oil is optimistic, and it may test the resistance at 8800. Other grains and oils are expected to be in a narrow - range shock [3]. - Sugar and Cotton: Sugar is in a bottom - level shock, and cotton should pay attention to the resistance at 13800 - 13900 [3]. - Livestock and Poultry Products: Hold the inter - month reverse arbitrage for pigs. For eggs, wait and see unilaterally and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Fruits and Nuts: Apples may oscillate around 9500 in the short term, and jujubes are in a weak - level shock [3].