广发期货《农产品》日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Due to the unexpected decline in SPPOMA production data and the boost from the rise in US soybean oil, there is a chance to break through 4,100 ringgit and attempt to reach 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit. However, there is a risk of a downward trend after the rebound. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are expected to strengthen to 8,800 yuan. - Soybean oil: The US EIA reported an increase in the use of soybean oil for bio - fuel production in September. Traders are closely watching the final decision of the US EPA on bio - fuel blending obligations in 2026. Currently, domestic demand is weak, but oil mills have a certain price - holding mentality, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. Pig Industry The market's slaughter enthusiasm has increased, and the downstream slaughter volume acquisition is smooth. The market supply and demand are basically balanced. In December, the supply is expected to increase, and the pig price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can be continued, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [4]. Meal Industry The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, but with the expected decline in supply, the basis has support. It is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The market should continue to pay attention to domestic procurement of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal is expected to remain volatile [8]. Corn Industry In the short term, the supply and demand of corn are tight, and the futures price remains firm. However, due to the un - released supply pressure, the price increase is limited, and the overall performance is in a narrow - range shock. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and procurement changes [10]. Sugar Industry The ICE raw sugar futures rebounded technically. India's sugar production increased in the first two months of the 2025/26 season. Overall, raw sugar remains in a weak state. Guangxi's new sugar is on the market, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern [14][15]. Cotton Industry The ICE cotton futures stabilized, supported by bargain - hunting and the grain market. Domestically, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is almost over, and the purchase price is falling. Zhengzhou cotton is under hedging pressure, but the support below is still strong. In the short term, the cotton price will fluctuate in a range [16]. Egg Industry The supply pressure in the egg market has been relieved to some extent, but the market lacks positive support, and the terminal demand is weak. The egg price is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - Price Changes: On December 2, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day; the futures price of P2601 was 8,652 yuan, up 0.79%. The spot price of Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Ol601 was 9,745 yuan, down 0.26%. The spot price of soybean oil was 8,620 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of Y2601 was 332 yuan, up 3.11% from the previous day; the basis of P2601 was - 100 yuan, down 21.95%. The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market was 0 yuan, down 100% from the previous day; the soybean - palm oil spread of 2601 was - 646 yuan, down 5.56% [1]. Pig Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures price of the main contract of live pigs was 11,950 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the spot price in Henan was 11,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day [4]. - Industry Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 209,506, up 0.39% from the previous day; the weekly price of white - striped pigs was 18.28 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Meal Industry - Price Changes: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of M2601 was 3,045 yuan, up 0.20%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,410 yuan, down 0.41% from the previous day; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,423 yuan, unchanged [8]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of M2601 was 15 yuan, down 28.57% from the previous day; the basis of RM2601 was - 13 yuan, down 333.33%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market was 650 yuan, up 1.56% from the previous day; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 was 622 yuan, up 0.97% [8]. Corn Industry - Price Changes: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,243 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the price of corn starch 2601 was 2,546 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [10]. - Industry Indicators: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing plants in the morning was 1,182, up 22.61% from the previous day; the north - south trade profit was 44 yuan, down 18.52% [10]. Sugar Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,382 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous day; the spot price in Nanning was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [14]. - Industry Indicators: The cumulative sugar production in the country was 1,116.21 tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 1,048.00 tons, up 9.17% year - on - year [14]. Cotton Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,755 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day; the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,817 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [16]. - Industry Indicators: The commercial inventory was 363.97 tons, up 24.2% month - on - month; the industrial inventory was 93.14 tons, up 4.9% month - on - month [16]. Egg Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures price of the egg 01 contract was 3,201 yuan/500KG, down 0.03% from the previous day; the egg production area price was 3.07 yuan/jin, down 0.20% [18]. - Industry Indicators: The egg - feed ratio was 2.32, down 3.33% from the previous day; the breeding profit was - 27.35 yuan/feather, down 18.60% [18].