广发期货《有色》日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips. Monitor macro - end changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - Expect industrial silicon prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply - demand in December [5]. Polysilicon - Anticipate an oversupply situation in December with inventory accumulation expected in all sectors. On the trading side, stay on the sidelines for futures and consider taking profits on options [6]. Nickel - Forecast the nickel price to range - bound in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [7]. Stainless Steel - Expect stainless steel prices to remain weakly oscillating, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [9]. Aluminum - Predict alumina prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. For aluminum, expect prices to be strong in the short term, with the main contract range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton [15][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Forecast casting aluminum alloy prices to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [17]. Zinc - Expect zinc prices to oscillate. The downside space is limited in the short term, and prices will likely remain in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to TC inflection points and inventory changes [19]. Copper - Forecast copper prices to have a gradually rising bottom center in the medium - to - long term, with the main support level at 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.14% to 304700 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 21.95% to 150 dollars/ton [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 22.39% to - 820 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 41.98% [5]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 250% [5]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - Spot Prices and Basis: N - type re -投料 average price remained unchanged at 52350 yuan/kg, and the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between the front - month and the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.13% to 119900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% [7]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [9]. Aluminum - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.09% to 21710 yuan/ton, and alumina (Shandong) average price decreased by 0.36% [14][16]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14][16]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spreads: SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21600 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed raw aluminum scrap - to - refined spread decreased by 1.77% [17]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: In October, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - Prices and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.80% to 22740 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and exports increased by 243.79% in October [19]. Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.69% to 88660 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton [20]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 15.61% in October [20].