广发期货《黑色》日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Steel prices are expected to remain range - bound. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract [2] - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures will continue to fluctuate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820. It is supported by downstream restocking and has a need for basis repair [5] - Coke: Coke futures have fallen in advance, basically over - anticipating the spot price cut. Along with the oscillating rise of finished products, it may follow coking coal to anticipate a rebound in advance. The strategy is to view it as a unilateral oscillation, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and an arbitrage recommendation of a reverse spread between the January and May contracts [9] - Coking Coal: The spot prices of coking coal and coke continue to fall, and the market rebounds in advance after a significant decline. The strategy is to view it as a unilateral oscillation, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and an arbitrage recommendation of a reverse spread between the January and May contracts [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar spot in East China rose by 10 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coil spot in East China remained unchanged. The cost of steel billets and slabs remained the same, and the profit of some products improved [2] - Production: The daily average hot metal output decreased by 1.6 to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 to 855.7 tons, a rise of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased [2] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [2] - Trading and Demand: Building material trading volume decreased by 2.7 to a certain value, a decline of 21.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [2] Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders remained unchanged. The basis of the January contract for some powders increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [5] - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 117.8 to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 44.8 to 3323.2 tons, a rise of 1.4%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3% [5] - Demand: The weekly average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 3.6 to 330.6 tons, a rise of 1.1%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5] - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 to 15237.39 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [5] Coke and Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: Coke prices were mostly stable, while coking coal prices showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal decreased by 80 to 1300 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.8%. The profit of coking plants and coal mines also changed [9] - Supply: The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 to 63.8 tons, a rise of 1.7%, and that of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines also increased [9] - Demand: The weekly hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The demand for coke is affected by the change in hot metal output [9] - Inventory: Coke inventory increased slightly, with coking plants and steel mills increasing inventory and ports decreasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also changed, with some sectors increasing and some decreasing [9]