油脂油料产业日报-20251203

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile consolidation. Short - term, they tried to break through 4,200 ringgit due to the rise of US soybean oil but fell back due to the expected record - high inventory of 2.71 million tons in late November. Watch if it can stand above 4,150 ringgit to avoid a downward trend [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures attempted to break through the annual resistance of 8,800 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil fails to break through 4,200 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may weaken, possibly falling below 8,500 yuan. It's mainly near - strong and far - weak, and focus on the annual resistance breakthrough [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, factory soybean oil supply is sufficient, demand is limited, and the basis in some areas has declined, dragging down the futures market. CBOT soybean oil is rising, but the geopolitical risk premium of international crude oil decreased after the US - Russia talks, affecting domestic oil markets. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil is testing 8,300 yuan and may fall back to test 8,220 yuan [4]. Bean Meal - The main contract of Dalian bean meal has shifted to the 2605 contract. The high - yield pattern restricts its upside, but La Nina may cause production cuts. The spot price is stable, and the market is trading lightly in the 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton range [14]. Group 2: Price Information Oil Price - Palm Oil: Palm oil 01 is 8,730 yuan/ton (+0.11%), palm oil 05 is 8,764 yuan/ton (+0.25%), palm oil 09 is 8,596 yuan/ton (+0.33%), BMD palm oil is 4,155 ringgit/ton (-0.1%), Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8,740 yuan/ton (+80), and its basis is 10 yuan/ton (+70) [6]. - Soybean Oil: Soybean oil 01 is 8,286 yuan/ton (+0.03%), soybean oil 05 is 8,094 yuan/ton (-0.04%), soybean oil 09 is 8,030 yuan/ton (+0.07%), CBOT soybean oil is 52.58 cents/pound (+0.5%), Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,490 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 202 yuan/ton (+10) [10]. Oilseed Price - Bean Meal: Bean meal 01 is 3,046 (+1, +0.03%), bean meal 05 is 2,847 (-1, -0.04%), bean meal 09 is 2,959 (+2, +0.07%) [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2,408 (-15, -0.62%), rapeseed meal 05 is 2,409 (-4, -0.17%), rapeseed meal 09 is 2,476 (-3, -0.12%) [15]. Group 3: Spread Information Oil Spread - Palm Oil Spread: P 1 - 5 is - 22 yuan/ton (+24), P 5 - 9 is 174 yuan/ton (+10), P 9 - 1 is - 152 yuan/ton (-34) [5]. - Soybean Oil Spread: Y 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton (-10), Y 5 - 9 is 58 yuan/ton (+2), Y 9 - 1 is - 250 yuan/ton (+8) [5]. - Inter - oil Spread: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton (-68), Y - P 05 is - 646 yuan/ton (-34), Y - P 09 is - 530 yuan/ton (-26), Y/M 01 is 2.7218 (-0.2%), Y/M 05 is 2.8427 (-0.33%), Y/M 09 is 2.7183 (-0.24%) [5]. Oilseed Spread - Bean Meal Spread: M 01 - 05 is 197 (-7), M 05 - 09 is - 109 (+3), M 09 - 01 is - 88 (+4) [16][19]. - Rapeseed Meal Spread: RM 01 - 05 is 10 (-10), RM 05 - 09 is - 66 (-1), RM 09 - 01 is 56 (+11) [16][19]. - Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spot spread is 600 (-20), the futures spread is 622 (+6) [19].