瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4,541 yuan/ton last week. The capacity utilization rate of PVC increased, with the downstream开工率 rising due to the increase in soft product开工率, while the开工 rates of pipes and profiles decreased. Social inventory accumulated slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene process decreased and profits slightly recovered. This week, the 300,000 - ton Shandong Hengtong device restarted, and the PVC capacity utilization rate still has an upward trend. In December, there are few PVC maintenance plans, and the high - operation state is expected to continue. With the temperature drop, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. The termination of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax policy on imported PVC still leaves overseas demand, but it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. The upstream price of the calcium carbide process remains strong, and there is still support at the cost end. Recently, affected by the cost - side benefits and the exit of short - covering positions, the PVC market rebounded. However, the rebound space is relatively limited under the background of high PVC operation and weak demand. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should focus on the support around 4,510 and the pressure around 4,600 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the trading volume was 589,135 lots, an increase of 40,154 lots; the open interest was 1,021,344 lots, a decrease of 2,694 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the buy order volume was 1,076,044 lots, an increase of 11,578 lots; the sell order volume was 1,196,722 lots, an increase of 10,079 lots; and the net buy order volume was - 120,678 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,523.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,548.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwestern China region, it was 2,559 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 438 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 38 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 498 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 173 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 178 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 80.22%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 83.61%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 72.38%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 527,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the total inventory in the East China region was 481,300 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 46,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed was 3,898.297 billion yuan, an increase of 311.91 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.17%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.21%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.91%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.91%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 1.39%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.42 percentage points month - on - month to 49.61%, among which the pipe开工率 decreased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 38.8%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.21 percentage points month - on - month to 36.09%. As of November 27th, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons. From November 22nd to 28th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,131 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,187 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 881 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process increased to - 465 yuan/ton [3]