瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Considering the sufficient supply of private resources, lack of further driving factors on the cost side, the downstream's firm attitude to push down prices, and the continued pressure on the spot negotiation center, both the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have increased The overall supply is expected to change little, while the downstream demand is likely to continue to push down prices The inventory increase of production and trading enterprises is expected to be limited in the short term The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to recover, but the increase will be restricted by some enterprises' maintenance plans The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,550 - 10,850 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton The main contract position was 38,986, a decrease of 6,617 The synthetic rubber 1 - 2 spread was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,350 tons, a decrease of 40 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Shanghai was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton The basis of synthetic rubber was -135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton Brent crude oil was 62.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars/barrel Naphtha CFR Japan was 567.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton Northeast Asian ethylene price was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged WTI crude oil was 58.64 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.68 US dollars/barrel The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 159,400 tons, unchanged The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points The port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.99%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons The weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points; of full-steel tires was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points The monthly output of full-steel tires was 12.42 million, a decrease of 720,000; of semi-steel tires was 51.68 million, a decrease of 8.57 million The inventory days of full-steel tires in Shandong were 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; of semi-steel tires were 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month-on-month and 13.64 percentage points year-on-year; that of full-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points month-on-month and 2.68 percentage points year-on-year Some semi-steel tire sample enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate, while full-steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization [2] - In November, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 5.44% and a year-on-year increase of 8.43% The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year [2] - As of November 26, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month increase of 2.95% Most previously maintained butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered The supply of private resources was sufficient last week Under the influence of the lack of further driving factors on the cost side, the downstream's attitude to push down prices was firm, and the spot negotiation center continued to be under pressure The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased [2]