瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing inventory build - up. Overseas ship arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, but downstream factories are flexible in production scheduling and cautious in stocking, leading to a large - scale inventory build - up at the port [2] - Last week, some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The all - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate increased. This week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually return to normal operation, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase, but the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises at the beginning of the month will limit the increase [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,100 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 58,055 lots, a decrease of 4,907 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 39,260 lots, a decrease of 3,018 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,075 lots, a decrease of 595 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 9,285 lots, a decrease of 978 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 41,400 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 51,710 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,825 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,949 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 719 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 59.55 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.36 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 57.15 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 148.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 27 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.2 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly all - steel tire start - up rate was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire start - up rate was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.02%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.31%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.87%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.87%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 6% decrease from October and a 46% increase from 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 10 million vehicles, reaching 10.3 million, a 26% increase year - on - year [2] - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a 2.71% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, a 0.69% increase; the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, a 3.07% increase [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a 3.36 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 13.64 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 2.68 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]