大越期货尿素早报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the urea market will experience a volatile trend today. Although there is a recent increase in agricultural demand and inventory reduction is boosting market sentiment, the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded to recent highs, while comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious destocking pattern. Agricultural demand has increased recently, and industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have both increased year-on-year. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports, combined with inventory destocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -7, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral situation [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. Industrial demand is based on needs, and agricultural demand has increased recently. Inventory destocking has boosted market sentiment. However, the overall oversupply in the domestic market remains obvious, and the UR is expected to trend in a volatile manner today [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Lido: Inventory destocking [5]. - Likong: The domestic market is oversupplied, and daily production continues to reach new highs [5]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - Main Risk Point: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract | Futures Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1687 | 12 | | Shandong Spot | 1680 | -10 | Basis | -7 | -12 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | UR01 | 1687 | 12 | | FOB China | 2810 | | UR05 | 1752 | 8 | | | | | UR09 | 1768 | 5 | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]