芳烃橡胶早报-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, focus on opportunities for low - level positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2][10] - For MEG, in the short - term, consider selling put options, while in the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [3] - For polyester short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Near - end TA partial device restarts, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks. In the future, TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and PX pattern is good [2] - PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34), and Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarts [9] MEG - Near - end domestic coal - chemical industry restarts intensively, start - up increases, overseas partial devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of next week, weekly arrival forecast is low, basis weakens, and coal - based profit slightly improves. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and the current valuation compression space may be limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3] - Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts, and MEG spot basis is near 01(-1) [3] Polyester Short - Fiber - Near - end device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates. In the future, short - fiber demand basically maintains the previous state, short - fiber export maintains high growth, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and pay attention to warehouse receipt situation [3] - Spot price is near 6337, and market basis is near 01 - 100 [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - National explicit inventory is stable and at a low absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - Daily changes show that ethylene price is stable, pure benzene price has minor changes, and styrene price increases. Domestic profits of styrene, EPS, and PS have different degrees of improvement [7] PX - PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks [2]