集运早报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the shipping space in the second half of December, and the expected trend is stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season price height. Although high shipping capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation because the pre - Spring Festival concentrated shipment has not fully started, the cargo volume on the European route has been strong this year with obvious seasonal features, and the contract covers the freight rates from the second half of January to the first ten days of February, and the seasonal freight rate peak is usually 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival [3]. - The short - term downside space of the EC2604 contract is small, and it is still recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1653.5, up 1.22%, trading volume was 523, and open interest was 3813 with a decrease of 216 [2]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1540.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 22299, and open interest was 35008 with a decrease of 1354 [2]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1083.1, up 1.03%, trading volume was 3303, and open interest was 18997 with a decrease of 156 [2]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1254.5, up 1.73%, trading volume was 381, and open interest was 2167 with an increase of 13 [2]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1380.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 247, and open interest was 157 with a decrease of 18 [2]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1042.2, up 0.95%, trading volume data was not clear, and open interest was 3889 with a decrease of 57 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 8.9, compared with 561.5 the previous day, 558.7 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 46.8 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 14.0, compared with 99.4 the previous day, 144.2 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was - 83.1 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was - 5.1, compared with 462.1 the previous day, 414.5 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 129.9 [2]. 3.3 Index Data - SCFIS (European Route): Updated on Mondays, as of December 1, 2025, it was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, and up 20.715% in the last period [2]. - SCFI (European Route): As of November 28, 2025, it was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period, and down 3.58% in the last period [2]. - CCFI: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period, and up 2.09% in the last period [2]. - NCFI: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period, and down 2.83% in the last period [2]. 3.4 Recent European Route Shipping Information - In the first half of December, the price increase announcement failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 US dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 US dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 US dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4]. - YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 US dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 US dollars [4]. - In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 US dollars, ONE to 2800 US dollars, and MSK's opening price was 2400 US dollars. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January shipping space in early December [4]. - MSK's opening quotation for Week 51 was 2400 US dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4]. - MSK added a new ship, MDV ELECTRA, on January 20, with unknown shipping capacity [4].