永安期货有色早报-20251204

Report Summary - Report Date: December 4, 2025 - Reporting Team: Research Center Non - ferrous Metals Team 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view from CESCO copper meetings is that buying on dips is the main strategy for copper, with an expected upward shift in the copper price center to the range of $10,500 - $11,300. For aluminum, the short - term trend may be volatile, with a shift from a supply - demand balance in early 2026 to a tighter situation later. Zinc prices are expected to have a limited decline in the short - term, and different trading strategies are recommended. Nickel and stainless steel fundamentals are weak, with opportunities for short - selling on rallies. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and caution is advised. Tin prices have an upward - moving center, and long - position strategies near the cost line are suggested. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate prices are in a volatile state, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction and other factors [1][2][3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary of Each Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 35, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 340, and the LME inventory increased by 350 [1]. - Market Outlook: The copper price center is expected to move up to the $10,500 - $11,300 range. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. The bearish factor to watch is the potential outflow of North American inventory if US tariffs are removed [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 90, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2500. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also continued to reduce inventory [1]. - Market Outlook: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the zinc price fluctuated, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium increased to $224, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - Market Outlook: The domestic zinc fundamentals are currently poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 350, and the domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [3]. - Market Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining sector and policy support for prices, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of various stainless - steel products remained unchanged, and the inventory remained at a high level [3]. - Market Outlook: The fundamentals are weak. With some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the lead price decreased, the social inventory decreased slightly to 35,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3800 [4][5]. - Market Outlook: The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200 next week. Attention should be paid to the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries, and cautious operation is recommended [5]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the center of the tin price increased, the LME inventory increased by 50, and the trading volume increased by 7721 [8]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, the fundamentals are acceptable. It is recommended to hold long positions near the cost line or use tin as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will increase but with limited elasticity and many disturbing factors [8]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 108 [9]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the basis of the main contract increased by 2850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 [9]. - Market Outlook: The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking range is expected to maintain at 5,000 - 6,000 tons. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction and the improvement of speculative demand [9].