LPG早报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with a decrease in the basis and a change in the 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices have fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts have decreased. The overseas paper - cargo prices have dropped, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads have changed. The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods has increased. Freight rates have slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered, and the alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4411 (+35), in Shandong was 4480 (+10), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4480 (-20). The lowest - delivery area was East China, with a basis of 129 (+65) and a 01 - 02 spread of 91 (+4). As of 21:00, FEI was 509 (-1) and CP was 500 (+0) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Price and Market Conditions - The PG futures price has decreased, with a basis of - 43 (-57) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts are 4561 hands (-54). Overseas paper - cargo prices have declined, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little, and the PG - CP has reached 126 (-2); the PG - FEI has reached 114 (+3). The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods is 35 dollars (+13). Freight rates have slightly decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to - 55 (+11) [1] 3.3 Profit and Operating Rate - The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered. The alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] 3.4 Inventory and Market Outlook - There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1]