建信期货国债日报-20251204

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Core Viewpoints - Domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid-year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion significantly. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing. The bond market's positive factors are accumulating, but in the short term, it's difficult for the easing to materialize, and it's unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid rise. It's still in the period of oscillatory energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to opportunities for bottom-fishing. In the short term, with important meetings approaching in December, the market may be more cautious about policies. Currently, the loose capital market is the main support for the bond market, but the low expectation of easing implementation limits the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short-term uncertainties, they will not affect the long-term allocation behavior of institutions. The central bank's bond purchases, although with limited net investment, still show a slight increase, and the resumption of operations also sends a signal of easing. In the long term, as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates will continue. Currently, the market's expectation of the central bank's easing operations is returning to rationality, and the risk of further adjustment should be limited [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: After the central bank's bond purchase data for November was released last night, with a net purchase of 50 billion yuan, a slight increase of 30 billion yuan compared to October, market sentiment improved. Most treasury bond futures closed slightly higher, but long-term bonds remained weak. The yields of major interbank interest rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the long-end rising by less than 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.84%, up 0.4bp. The interbank capital market was loose. The central bank had 213.3 billion yuan of funds due in the open market and injected 79.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. The interbank capital sentiment index was stable, and the capital supply was abundant. The weighted overnight rate in the interbank deposit market fluctuated around 1.3%, and the 7-day rate fluctuated around 1.44%. The medium and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained in the range of 1.61% - 1.63% [8][9][10] - Conclusion: The bond market's positive factors are accumulating, but in the short term, it's difficult for the easing to materialize, and it's in the period of oscillatory energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to bottom-fishing opportunities. The loose capital market is the main support for the bond market, but the low expectation of easing implementation limits the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. The new regulations on fund sales fees have a short-term impact, and the central bank's bond purchases show a slight increase and a signal of easing. In the long term, as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates will continue. The risk of further adjustment is limited [11][12] 2. Industry News - China's S&P Composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from the previous value of 51.8; the S&P Services PMI was 52.1, down from the previous value of 52.6. The new order index continued to grow since the beginning of 2023, and the new export order performance improved significantly [13] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special symposium on the compilation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing the optimization and adjustment of the state-owned economic layout and the construction of a modern industrial system [13] - On December 2, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection of various central bank tools in November 2025. The net investment in open market treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan, and it was the second consecutive month of treasury bond trading operations [13] - From January to October, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 68.35293 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 3.42144 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [13] - The issuance of local government special bonds has entered a "closing wave" at the end of the year. As of November 30, the scale of newly issued special bonds in November reached approximately 492.192 billion yuan, an increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared to October, with a month-on-month increase of 71% [14] - The working meeting of the Market Interest Rate Pricing Self-regulatory Mechanism was held, discussing and exchanging hot issues in current interest rate pricing and self-regulatory management [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on December 3, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for each contract [6] - Money Market: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and interbank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (average) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (average) [34]