《能源化工》日报-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash is bearish, with expected bottom - side oscillations. Glass prices may face pressure in the medium - to - long term, especially after December [1]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the caustic soda price is expected to be weak, and PVC is likely to continue its bottom - weakening trend due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - For LLDPE and PP, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. - For methanol, port destocking expectations are strengthened, and the price has bottom - side support [6]. - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations between $60 - 65 per barrel [11]. - For natural rubber, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices may face upward pressure, and styrene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [13]. - For the polyester industry chain, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip all have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies proposed [14]. - For urea, no clear core view on price trends is provided, but supply and inventory data are presented [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on December 4, 2025. Futures prices of glass 2601 and soda ash 2601 decreased, while the basis of 01 contracts for both increased [1]. - Supply: Soda ash production and float - glass daily melting volume decreased, and photovoltaic daily melting volume also declined [1]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories decreased [1]. - Real Estate Data: New - construction area, construction area, and sales area declined year - on - year, while the completion area increased [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: Some PVC and caustic soda prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [2]. - Export: The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [2]. - Supply: The caustic soda industry's overall开工 rate decreased slightly, and the PVC开工 rate increased [2]. - Demand: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - Inventory: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in some regions and PVC upstream factories increased [2]. LLDPE and PP - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased on December 3, 2025, and the spreads between some contracts changed [4]. - Supply and Demand: The PE装置开工率 increased, and the PP粉料开工率 increased, while the downstream weighted开工 rate of PE decreased slightly, and that of PP increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [4]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [6]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [6]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 and overseas enterprise开工率 decreased, while some downstream开工率 increased [6]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased on December 3, 2025, while SC crude oil prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil changed [11]. - Market Situation: Due to the Ukraine - Russia situation and EIA data, oil prices first rose and then fell, and short - term oil prices are expected to range - bound oscillate [11]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: Some natural rubber spot prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [12]. - Production and Consumption: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the开工率 of some downstream industries changed [12]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream products and styrene - related products changed on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cash - flow of some contracts changed [13]. - Inventory: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, and the styrene inventory decreased [13]. - Supply and Demand: The开工 rate of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream products, polyester products, and related spreads and cash - flows changed on December 3, 2025 [14]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation also increased [14]. - Supply and Demand: The开工 rate of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. Urea - Prices and Spreads: Urea futures prices and spot prices in different regions changed slightly on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cross - regional spread changed [15]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic urea daily output and the production enterprise开工率 increased, and the factory - warehouse inventory decreased [15].