建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251204

Report Information - Report date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The national egg price remained stable today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.07 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 2.40%. In the near term, egg futures have fluctuated significantly due to sentiment. Recently, funds have quickly withdrawn, and the 01 contract has declined weakly. Looking at the fundamentals, there will be an increase in demand during the double festivals in December, and the 01 contract is in the peak season for Spring Festival stockpiling this year, so the downward space is limited. However, spot pressure restricts the upside of futures. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support level of 3100 below. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall, and you can continuously pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the callback of the peak season contract next year. The spread between near and far months may continue to widen. [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: The 2601 contract of eggs had a previous settlement price of 3215, an opening price of 3195, a high of 3200, a low of 3134, a closing price of 3138, a decline of 77, a decline rate of -2.40%, a trading volume of 249,638, an open interest of 168,548, and an open interest change of 137,097. The 2602 contract had a previous settlement price of 3063, an opening price of 3046, a high of 3059, a low of 3007, a closing price of 3018, a decline of 45, a decline rate of -1.47%, a trading volume of 88,606, an open interest of 136,748, and an open interest change of 4,487. The 2603 contract had a previous settlement price of 3126, an opening price of 3110, a high of 3149, a low of 3083, a closing price of 3100, a decline of 26, a decline rate of -0.83%, a trading volume of 114,340, an open interest of 135,708, and an open interest change of 3,655. [7] - Operation suggestions: Based on the fact that the spot price has not changed significantly, do not chase the rise or kill the fall. Continuously pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the callback of the peak season contract next year, as the spread between near and far months may continue to widen. [8] 4.2 Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year-on-year increase of 5.59% compared to the end of October 2024. [9] - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025, and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. From July to October 2025, the total replenishment was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year. [9] - Culling volume: As of November 20, 2025, the culling volume of chickens in the previous three weeks was 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. Recently, the culling volume has fluctuated but has increased slightly overall compared to the previous period. [9] - Culling age: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of chickens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an acceleration of the culling speed. [10] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of eggs in December, the basis of the egg 12 contract, the spread between the egg 12 - 02 contracts, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, and the profit of laying hen farming, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][12][19]