建信期货生猪日报-20251204

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 04, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see state, so the price is mainly volatile. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the relatively concentrated secondary fattening and pressure on pigs in October, combined with continuous capacity release, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting continued pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is mainly weak and volatile, but since the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, the frequency of bottom - range volatility may increase [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 3rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down in the end. The highest was 11,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,235 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,152 lots to 371,564 lots [8] - Spot Market: On the 3rd, the average price of ternary live pigs in the country was 11.28 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Supply Side: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on pigs were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the slaughter at the beginning of the month has slowed down [9] - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pens is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan, and the fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have also improved. The terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 176,700 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 2,800 heads compared with the previous week, and 17,800 heads compared with the previous month [9] 4.2 Data Overview - Profit: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head [19] - Cost: As of the week ending November 21, the cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [19] - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg compared with the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [19]