Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is in a state of reducing production and inventory, with relatively minor contradictions. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3169 yuan/ton, 3203 yuan/ton, and 3137 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3324 yuan/ton, 3337 yuan/ton, and 3319 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price is 2990 yuan/ton, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar cost is 3245 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3177 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit is - 34 yuan/ton, North China rebar profit is - 114 yuan/ton, and South China rebar profit is 206 yuan/ton. East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 24 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. The output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, an increase of 5.8 tons or 0.7%. Rebar output is 206.1 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.9%. Among them, electric - arc furnace output is 29.3 tons, an increase of 2.6 tons or 9.5%, and converter output is 176.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil output is 319.0 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 32.3 tons or 2.3%. Rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, a decrease of 21.9 tons or 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 9.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons or 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons or 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or 1.3% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 750 - 820. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin continued to decline, hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. With the rebound of steel prices, there is room for raw material price increases. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the hot metal output has no basis for a large - scale decline, which supports the iron ore demand [3]. 3. Summary by Section Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines is 803.3 yuan/ton, PB fines is 844.7 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 847.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 843.5 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis for Karara fines is 3.8 yuan/ton, PB fines is 45.2 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 47.5 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread is 24.0 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is 22.5 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices at Rizhao Port: Karara fines is 883.0 yuan/ton, PB fines is 796.0 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 824.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 741.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Price indexes: The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 107.4 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe is 107.8 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons or 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3323.2 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons or 1.4%. The national monthly import volume is 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 500.6 tons or 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons or 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 49.7 tons or 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel output is 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 149.3 tons or 2.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 15237.39 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons or 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 58.8 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged from the previous value [3]. Report on the Coke Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke futures are expected to oscillate. The reference range is 1550 - 1700. The first round of price reduction for coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price reduction in the short term. The supply side has some changes in production, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and maintenance. The inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coke is recommended [7]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 1050 - 1150. The spot market is weak, and the supply side has production changes. The demand side's replenishment demand is weakening. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Section Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1603 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coke 01 contract is 1625 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1752 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is 5 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 149 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1205 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coking coal 01 contract is 1071 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1165 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is - 22 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 20 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.7%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.2% [7]. - Coking coal production: The output of sample coal mines (weekly) has a certain change, and the daily output of coal mines has decreased slightly [7]. Demand - Coke demand: Affected by the decline in hot metal output of steel mills, the demand for coke is weakening [7]. - Coking coal demand: With the recovery of coking plant profits and a slight increase in production, the replenishment demand for coking coal is weakening [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons or 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons or 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons or - 2.94% [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons or - 2.7%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 1.0% [7].
《黑色》日报-20251204
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-04 01:55