《有色》日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - Fundamentals: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - Inventory: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - Fundamentals: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - Inventory: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - Fundamentals: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - Inventory: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - Fundamentals: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - Inventory: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - Fundamentals: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - Inventory: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - Fundamentals: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - Inventory: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - Fundamentals: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - Inventory: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - Fundamentals: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - Inventory: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - Fundamentals: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - Inventory: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - Fundamentals: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - Inventory: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].