建信期货工业硅日报-20251204

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 04, 2025 [2] - Report type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report [1] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%. The trading volume was 145,999 lots, and the open interest was 193,926 lots, with a net increase of 6,584 lots [4] - Spot prices have loosened recently. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Spot price fluctuations are within 100 yuan/ton, providing limited guidance to the futures market. The production reduction in the southwest region is approaching the seasonal low, while the northern region maintains high - level production. The output has entered a stable stage, but the demand has weakened simultaneously. Silicone enterprises will reduce production to support prices starting from December, and polysilicon is in the season of production reduction. The supply - demand imbalance remains unresolved [4] - Futures warehouse receipts are concentrated for cancellation, and the futures price is at a discount. There is support around 8,800 yuan/ton in the short term, with limited downward space, and the market will generally move in a range - bound manner (net long positions increased by 5,596 lots, and net short positions increased by 547 lots) [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,892 lots, a net increase of 108 lots compared to the previous trading day [4] - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.78% [4] - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxanes (organic silicon) was 40,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes was 460,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [4]