原油成品油早报-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The explosion at the core berth of CPC over the weekend led to an interruption in exports on the 28th and 29th, which is expected to impact the short - term crude oil exports of Kazakhstan and Russia, and the crude oil monthly spread is expected to rebound. The specific impact assessment still needs to monitor whether the attacks continue. The market expects OPEC to maintain the decision to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Global on - land inventories are accumulating, while the total on - land and water inventories are slightly decreasing. US EIA commercial crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories are accumulating, and diesel inventories in Singapore and ARA are significantly decreasing. Recently, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have improved. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are entering detailed stages. In the short term, the European diesel crack spread has declined significantly due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still have support. It is expected that there is still room for the gasoline - diesel price difference to repair downward. The Brent price range in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, and the short - term valuation deviation is not high. Maintain the short - selling strategy. Recently, focus on whether the interruption of CPC oil exports continues, and the short - term Brent monthly spread is facing a strengthening driver [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 27 to December 3, 2025, WTI prices changed from unavailable to 58.95, with a change of 0.31; BRENT prices changed from 63.34 to 62.67, with a change of 0.22; DUBAI prices changed from unavailable to 63.41, with a change of 0.17. Other related price differentials and product prices also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - Venezuela's oil exports in November reached about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. Exports to the US increased to about 150,000 barrels per day, and exports of petroleum by - products and petrochemicals also rose. The import of light crude oil and fuel more than doubled [3] - US President Trump proposed to significantly reduce the fuel economy requirements by 2031, aiming for an average fuel economy of 34.5 miles per gallon, lower than the 50.4 miles per gallon under the previous President Biden's rule. The proposal is estimated to reduce the average upfront cost of vehicles by $900 [4] - Ukraine claimed that the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline was attacked by an explosion, and Russia has not responded yet [4] 3. Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 2.48 million barrels, compared with the previous value of - 1.859 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 3.136 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 0.539 million barrels [4] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 0.574 million barrels, compared with the expected - 0.821 million barrels and the previous value of 2.774 million barrels; EIA gasoline inventory was 4.518 million barrels, compared with the expected 1.468 million barrels and the previous value of 2.513 million barrels; EIA refined oil inventory was 2.059 million barrels, compared with the expected 0.707 million barrels and the previous value of 1.147 million barrels [4][5] - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.2331 million tons, a decline of 1.75%, and diesel inventory was 12.2708 million tons, a decline of 4.25%. Refining profits of major refineries rebounded, while those of local refineries fluctuated [5] - As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels to 20.849 million barrels. Light distillate inventory decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [5]