瑞银展望2026：经济互联互通：中国与泰国

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China is Thailand's third-largest source of foreign direct investment, with approximately $3 billion invested in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by Chinese automotive manufacturers in the electric vehicle sector [1][3] - Over 70% of respondents in a UBS survey indicated increased availability of Chinese products, with 60%-70% purchasing them more frequently, particularly in consumer electronics and retail, due to value for money, promotions, and quality [1][4] - Thailand's tourism industry faces challenges from safety concerns of Chinese tourists and changing travel preferences, leading to a shift towards attracting higher-value tourists and promoting cultural soft power [1][6] - The hotel industry in Thailand is expected to see a decline in RevPAR in 2026, with high-end hotels facing pricing pressure, although government strategies for high-end positioning could benefit the industry in the long term [1][7] - China's dominance in global chemical and petrochemical production significantly impacts Thailand's chemical market, with potential benefits for Thai companies if China reduces overcapacity [1][8] Summary by Sections Economic Connectivity - China has become Thailand's largest trading partner, with about 25% of Thailand's intermediate goods imports coming from China, particularly in electronics, machinery, and steel [3] - Chinese investments in the electric vehicle supply chain are increasing, prompting significant land sales by Thai industrial park operators [3] Chinese Brand Influence - Chinese brands have gained a competitive edge in the ASEAN market, especially in Thailand, with over 70% of respondents noting increased availability of Chinese products [4][5] - In the retail sector, brands like Miniso and Pop Mart excel in fashion and quality, respectively, meeting consumer demands for value and style [9] Tourism Industry Challenges - Thailand's tourism sector is at a crossroads, with a decline in inbound tourism, particularly from China, due to safety concerns and changing preferences [6][13] - The government aims to reposition Thailand as a high-end tourist destination, focusing on cultural and niche tourism, although significant impacts may not be seen until 2028 [6][14] Hotel Industry Outlook - A decline in RevPAR is anticipated for 2026, with domestic tourism providing some support, but high-end hotels may face pricing pressures due to oversupply [7][13] - Successful government strategies for high-end positioning could create long-term benefits for the industry [7] Chemical Market Dynamics - China's policies on reducing overcapacity in the chemical sector could lead to a more balanced global supply-demand environment, benefiting Thai companies [8][15] - The potential exit of older Chinese chemical plants could improve global operational efficiency and support a cyclical recovery [8] Retail Market Performance - Chinese brands dominate the low-priced segment in Thailand's electronics and home appliances market, with Xiaomi leading in brand recognition [10][11] - Local brands maintain strong positions in dairy, grocery retail, and beverages, reflecting consumer trust in domestic products [12]