广发期货《黑色》日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, the iron ore price is suppressed, and one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures will oscillate in the range of 750 - 820. There is support from downstream restocking, and there is a need for basis repair. Although the price is at a high level, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream demand, the iron ore demand is stable. [3] Coke Industry - Coke futures have basically overdrawn the spot price cut expectation, and the further decline space is limited. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal spot and futures prices are in a range - bound oscillation after a significant decline. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have slight changes, with some prices falling. Futures contract prices also have some fluctuations. For example, rebar spot in the South China region decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 3203 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The profit of some steel products has improved, such as the profit of East China rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 2 yuan/ton. [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The output of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decline of 0.9%. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decline of 0.3%. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.0, a decline of 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decline of 1.2%. [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of the January contract also changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton to 803.3 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract for Carajás fines decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton to 3.8 yuan/ton. [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly. For example, the spot price of Carajás fines in Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton. [3] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3%. [3] Demand - The weekly daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The weekly daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%. [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices remained unchanged, and futures contract prices decreased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained at 1662 yuan/ton, and the coke 05 - contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [7] Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. [7] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 3.6 tons to 2.0 tons. [7] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal spot increased slightly, and futures contract prices decreased. For example, the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1205 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 - contract price decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 1071 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The raw coal output increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal output increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1%. [7] Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in hot - metal output and the change in coking plant production. [7] Inventory Changes - The inventory of washing plants, ports, and coking plants decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased. The total inventory increased slightly. [7]