锡产业期现日报-20251204

1. Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina continues to suppress prices. Expect prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the main contract's reference operating range shifting down to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum - Expect short - term aluminum prices to remain strong, with the main SHFE aluminum contract's reference operating range at 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory drawdown sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, with the main contract's reference operating range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory drawdown [5]. Polysilicon - In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link has inventory build - up expectations. The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [7]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the previous expectation of low - level oscillations in industrial silicon prices, with the main price fluctuation range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to end - of - year export demand decline and the impact of warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market [8]. Zinc - In the short term, the downward space of zinc prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Monitor the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract's reference range at 22200 - 23000 [11]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price's bottom center. Focus on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract's support at 88500 - 89500 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Expect short - term wide - range oscillations in the lithium carbonate market, with the main contract's reference range at 92000 - 95000. Pay attention to the sustainability of year - end demand and the progress of large - scale plant复产 [16]. Nickel - Expect short - term range - bound oscillations in nickel prices, with the main contract's reference range at 116000 - 120000. Monitor macro - level expectation changes and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel - Expect short - term weak oscillations in stainless steel prices, with the main contract's reference operating range at 12300 - 12700. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose 1.51% to 309300 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread fell 38.67% to 92 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 13.91% to - 16070.31 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, tin ore imports increased 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased 58.55%, and exports decreased 15.33%. Inventory increased, with SHEF inventory rising 2.09% and social inventory rising 2.23% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: US ADP data decline strengthens Fed rate - cut expectations. Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, with limited improvement expected this year. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China are more resilient than those in East China [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some enterprises cut production, but overall supply is still abundant, and imports increase supply pressure. Inventory: Domestic visible inventory is accumulating. Cost: Cost support may decline. Price: Expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - cut expectations boost market sentiment, but Japanese central bank's potential rate hike increases volatility. Domestic: Lower aluminum prices stimulate downstream procurement, and inventory decreases [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased. Month - to - month spreads changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.84%. Some开工 rates increased, and recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased 1.59% [5]. Market Analysis - Supply: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and cost support is strong. Demand: Automobile parts orders support demand. Price: Short - term prices are expected to be strong [5]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - Polysilicon spot prices stabilized, and futures prices oscillated higher. The main contract rose 1115 yuan/ton to 57430 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased. Polysilicon imports increased, and exports decreased. Inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory rising 3.69% and silicon wafer inventory rising 4.17% [7]. Market Analysis - The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. In December, downstream production is expected to decline significantly, and polysilicon may face inventory build - up pressure [7]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon spot price fell 0.52% to 9500 yuan/ton; futures price oscillated lower. Some month - to - month spreads changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, national industrial silicon production decreased 11.17%, and some regional production and开工 rates decreased. Organic silicon DMC production increased 3.82%, and industrial silicon exports decreased 35.82%. Inventory increased slightly [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Production is expected to decline slightly, but demand may also decrease. Inventory: Warehouse receipts will flow into the spot market, increasing supply pressure. Price: Expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.22% to 22790 yuan/ton; import loss decreased 326.75 yuan/ton to - 5143 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased 3.56%. In October, imports decreased 16.94%, and exports increased 243.79%. Some开工 rates were stable, and LME inventory increased 1.87% [11]. Market Analysis - Supply: TC decline compresses smelting profits, and export space opens, reducing supply pressure. Demand: Some improvement in demand structure, but terminal demand is stable. Price: Expected to oscillate [11]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.36% to 88980 yuan/ton; some spreads changed. Arbitrage loss decreased 28.61 yuan/ton to - 1433 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased 1.05%. In October, imports decreased 15.61%. Some开工 rates decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased 11.96% [13]. Market Analysis - Macro: Rate - cut expectations boost copper prices. Supply: Concerns about supply shortages persist, and CSPT may cut production. Demand: High copper prices still see spot premiums and stable processing - end开工 rates [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.05% to 94350 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads changed [16]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased 3.35%, demand increased 5.11%, imports increased 21.86%, and exports increased 63.05%. Inventory decreased, with total inventory decreasing 23.36% [16]. Market Analysis - Price: The futures market fell. Supply: A new lithium mine project approval stirs the market. Demand: Demand is optimistic, but concerns remain about the sustainability of year - end demand [16]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 120000 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 3.53% to - 195 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 39.64% to - 874 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and imports decreased 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased 2.48%, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% [19]. Market Analysis - Macro: Market expects Fed rate hike, and Sino - US call eases sentiment. Supply: Refined nickel spot transactions are average, and nickel ore prices are under pressure. Demand: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel sulfate demand is expanding [19]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel prices remained unchanged; some month - to - month spreads changed [20]. Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased 0.72%, and Indonesian production increased 0.36%. Imports increased 3.18%, and exports decreased 14.43%. 300 - series social inventory increased 1.92% [20]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - hike expectations and Chinese fiscal policies. Supply: Nickel - iron production increases, and supply pressure remains. Demand: It is the off - season, and demand is weak. Price: Expected to oscillate weakly [20].