铂钯金期货日报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the shock correction of the precious metal market may continue due to some long - profit - taking funds leaving the market after the previous strong rally driven by interest - rate cut expectations. In the long term, platinum prices may maintain strong resilience supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, structural supply - demand deficits, the continuous progress of "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure during the "platinum replacing palladium" process in the gasoline purification catalyst field, and the palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the subsequent catch - up rally of palladium prices is expected to continue [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 439.65 yuan/gram, down 2.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 379.25 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 428.00 yuan, up 1.00 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 372.00 yuan, down 2.50 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.65 yuan/gram, up 3.75 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 7.25 yuan/gram, up 0.20 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51 [2]. Industry News - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The new order growth declined from a one - year high, and the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low. The employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, against an expected increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The platinum and palladium main contracts fluctuated weakly during the session, with the London platinum spot price significantly corrected and the London palladium spot price relatively resilient [2]. Key Points to Watch - On December 4th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in November; at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29th; the US PCE personal consumption expenditure data for September (time to be determined) [2].