国债期货日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November, economic indicators may continue to decline, putting slight pressure on the fundamentals and supporting the bond market. However, the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in November was significantly lower than market expectations. Considering the continuous increase in MLF and outright repo operations, the market liquidity gap is small, and the need to supplement long - term liquidity through direct Treasury bond trading is not urgent. In this context, market sentiment is weak, and Treasury bond futures prices have fallen to the level before the central bank announced bond purchases in October, and may continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Closing Prices and Volumes: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.35%, 0.24%, 0.05%, and 1.04% respectively, while their trading volumes increased to 69,656, 34,142, 15,568, and 113,661 respectively [2] - Futures Spreads: Most of the spreads between different contracts showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - Futures Positions: T and TF main contract positions decreased, while TS and TL main contract positions increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased, while that of TL increased [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - CTD Net Prices: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 250017.IB(2y) which increased slightly [2] - Active Bond Yields: Yields of 1y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds increased by 0.35bp, 0bp, 0.10bp, and 0.15bp respectively, while the 3y yield decreased by 0.40bp [2] 3.3 Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates, as well as Shibor overnight and 7 - day rates, showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - In November, the central bank achieved a net capital injection through various tools, including a net injection of 500 billion yuan in open - market Treasury bond trading, 254 billion yuan in PSL, 1150 billion yuan in other structural monetary policy tools, and 1000 billion yuan in MLF, despite a net withdrawal in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [2] 3.5 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private enterprises to seize investment opportunities, and the Ministry of Commerce promotes the construction of new consumption scenarios [2] 3.6 Economic Indicators - Domestic: In November, the manufacturing PMI slightly recovered to 49.2%, but the composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time this year. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and indicators such as social retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [2] - Overseas: The US ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, and the ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, increasing the risk of a decline in the labor market and solidifying the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On December 4th at 21:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week; on December 5th at 23:00, pay attention to the US core PCE price index for September [3]