瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and the shutdown of oil mills, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the sufficient supply of soybeans and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is in a state of high - level wide - range shock in the short term, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the supply of Australian rapeseed and soybeans may increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined in shock, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9,618 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2,422 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 14.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,509 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 181 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 27 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Positions: The positions of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 16,785 hands to 140,400 hands; the positions of the main contract of rapeseed meal decreased by 39,429 hands to 205,310 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 6,619 hands to - 5,838 hands; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal decreased by 10,262 hands to - 45,128 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,168.75 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,750.12 yuan/ton, down 164.41 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 339 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 32 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,560 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,640 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 0 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, an increase of 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 10,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 729 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10,200 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 100 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 355,000 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 212,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 9,200 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 243,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 11,200 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2.957 million tons, a decrease of 171,700 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons, a decrease of 67,400 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 51.99 billion yuan, an increase of 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.13%, down 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.13%, down 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.36%, down 1.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.36%, down 1.48% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.13%, down 1.69%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.85%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 11.87%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.57%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 3, ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the decline of CBOT soybean oil futures, and traders were waiting for the annual final production report of Statistics Canada [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply, and face competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. However, domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and the market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased significantly in November with inventory accumulation pressure. However, floods in Southeast Asia have enhanced the expectation of seasonal palm oil production reduction, and Indonesia has introduced new regulations [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is tightening due to import restrictions and oil mill shutdowns, while demand is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in shock in the short term, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the supply of Australian rapeseed and soybeans may increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined in shock, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]